BRENTWOOD – The average Southern Baptist church is likely an older, small Southern church. If you want to find a growing congregation, however, you might need to look for a new, larger church – or even one in the Northeast.
Recent Lifeway Research analysis of the 2024 Annual Church Profile reveals a membership decline among existing Southern Baptist churches across every region of the United States, and a convention composed of a growing percentage of the smallest churches. The statistical analysis also reveals, however, certain types of congregations that were more likely to be growing.
“The five-year span in this analysis compares the most recent Annual Church Profile to the last statistics reported before COVID,” said Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research. “Denominational totals have also been impacted by non-reporting churches, new churches started during these years, and churches that closed or disaffiliated. But this analysis allows us to see changes within this set of churches that reported both years.”
Five-year trends
Comparing ACP data from 2019 and 2024 indicates which Southern Baptist churches are growing, plateaued or declining. A church is considered growing if their total membership increased by 10% or more in the five-year period. They are labeled declining if their membership decreased by 10% or more and plateaued if their membership was within 10% of 2019. Overall, 21% of Southern Baptist churches are growing, 39% are plateaued, and 40% are declining.
In terms of attendance, larger churches are most likely to have gotten larger, while small churches continue to shrink. Southern Baptist congregations with 500 or more in worship attendance are the most likely to have grown (29%) and the least likely to have declined (35%) since 2019.
Churches with an average of fewer than 50 in attendance are the most likely to have declined in membership (42%), while those averaging between 50 and 99 are the most likely to be plateaued (41%).
In terms of church age, the only group of churches that demonstrated overall membership growth in the past five years is the group of churches founded since 2000. They grew by 12%. Membership among congregations founded from 1950-1999 (-11%), 1900-1949 (-13%) and pre-1900 (-11%) all saw declines.
This concentration of membership growth among newer churches is also noticeable when looking at the percentage of churches that have experienced growth in the past five years. Churches founded this century are more than twice as likely to be growing compared to the other founding time frames. Almost half (46%) of newer churches have grown more than 10% since 2019. A much smaller percentage of congregations started from 1950-1999 (21%), 1900-1949 (16%) and pre-1900 (15%) are growing.
Southern Baptist churches founded between 1950 and 1999 are the most likely to be declining by more than 10% since 2019 (45%). Those founded before 1900 are the most likely to be plateaued, within plus or minus 10% of their 2019 membership (47%).
“These findings confirm what we have long believed: God is at work in the churches Southern Baptists are planting today,” said Kevin Ezell, president of the North American Mission Board. “The fact that congregations founded since 2000 that reported on the 2019 and 2025 ACP have grown by 12% – and that nearly half of newer churches have seen more than 10% growth since 2019 – proves that our commitment to church planting and missions in North America is bearing fruit.”
Ezell continued, “Even as established churches face challenges, there is tremendous potential for them to find life by developing a multiplication mindset and finding their role in planting new congregations. Now is the time for Southern Baptists to hold steady, stay focused and continue investing in starting new churches and reaching new people for Christ. The future of our mission depends on it.”
Churches in urban areas, places with a population of 50,000 or more, are the most likely to be on either extreme. Urban Southern Baptist churches are the most likely to be growing (26%) and declining (45%). Those in rural areas with a population of less than 2,500 are the most likely to be plateaued (45%).
Regionally, Southern Baptist churches in the Northeast (38%) and West (31%) are the most likely to have experienced growth over the past five years. However, churches in the West (46%) are among the most likely to have declined. Those in the South (41%) are most likely to have plateaued.
The subregions that saw the least amount of overall decline were the Middle Atlantic (-3%), New England (-4%), East South Central (-5%) and West South Central (-7%). Other regions saw greater membership declines, including East North Central (-10%), Mountain (-11%), South Atlantic (-14%), Pacific (-17%) and West North Central (-17%).
Among specific states with a large enough number of churches to examine statistically, existing Southern Baptist churches in New Jersey (12%), Connecticut (9%), Massachusetts (6%) and Iowa (4%) all grew in membership. Vermont, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Utah and New Hampshire also grew, but they each have fewer than 30 Southern Baptist churches.
Among the 10 states with the most Southern Baptists, only Tennessee did not experience a membership decline. It remained flat compared to 2019.
“In the history of this analysis, Southern Baptists have never had more declining churches. And with the exception of three years during COVID, there has never been a lower percentage of Southern Baptist churches growing,” McConnell said. “But there are churches in every context that are working hard to share the Gospel in their community and to be faithful with the members God has entrusted them with.”
Average Southern Baptist church
Churches in the Northeast might be those most likely to be growing, but Southern Baptist churches remain primarily in the South. And most churches don’t reach triple digits on Sunday mornings.
Around 4 in 5 churches (79%) call the South home. Fewer exist in the Midwest (10%), the West (9%) and the Northeast (3%). Among the churches in the South, 41% are in the South Atlantic region, 29% in East South Central and 31% in West South Central.
Two in 5 Southern Baptist churches (41%) have fewer than 50 people attending their worship service. Almost 3 in 10 (27%) average between 50 and 99. Around 1 in 5 (21%) see attendance from 100 to 249. Fewer draw crowds of 250 to 499 (7%) or 500 or more (4%).
In fact, the Southern Baptist Convention is increasingly becoming a grouping of smaller churches. In 2019, 39% of congregations in the Convention were those with fewer than 50 in attendance. That climbed 2 percentage points in 2024 to 41%.
“In each of the four worship attendance categories above 1-49, at least 1 in 5 churches are in a smaller attendance category than the one they were in back in 2019,” said McConnell.
A plurality of Southern Baptist congregations (44%) exist in suburban areas, with a population ranging from 2,500 to less than 50,000. The rest are split between rural (26%) and urban (29%).
Half of churches in the Convention started in the 20th century, including 20% from 1900-1949 and 30% from 1950-1900. More than a quarter (26%) began before 1900. Slightly less than a quarter (24%) began since 2000.
In terms of small group discipleship, most Southern Baptist churches are seeing less than 75% of their worship attendance also take part in Sunday School or some other small group, including 9% that draw less than 25% of their attendance to groups participation, 23% that have 25% to less than 50% and 41% with 50% to less than 75%.
Far fewer have small group ministries that come close to worship service attendance, including 19% that draw between 75% and less than 100% and 9% that bring in 100% or more.
“The different patterns seen among churches in different demographic groups is an indication that many factors outside and inside churches can impact your ministry,” McConnell said. “One of the best ways to learn from others in your local context is for Southern Baptist churches to be actively involved in their local association. The value is not to compare who is doing the best, but to face local and national challenges together.”
For more information, view the ACP church statistics and ACP church performance reports and visit LifewayResearch.com.
Methodology
This analysis was based on data reported on the Annual Church Profile (ACP) in 2024 and 2019. The ACP is an annual statistical census of Southern Baptist congregations conducted cooperatively by local associations, state conventions, and Lifeway Christian Resources. Around 7 in 10 Southern Baptist churches (69%) reported at least one item on the 2024 ACP.
